Nikulin, Likhachyov and others. The race for the Rookie of the Year award

Last year, we all watched with interest the progress and the rivalry of two young players, Avangard’s Arseny Gratsyuk and Dynamo Moscow’s Dmitry Rashevsky. At one point it became apparent that they would be the main contenders for the KHL rookie of the season award. The League gave preference to the Omsk’s forward, but it was a close one. It’s extremely likely that something similar will happen this season again.

Now, in the 2022-2023 season, the battle came down primarily to two Yaroslavl natives. The talk is about Stepan Nikulin from Lokomotiv, and Amur’s Yaroslav Likhachyov, who ended up in the Far East on loan from the Yaroslavl club. Back in the preseason, it turned out that these forwards were competing for the same position on Igor Nikitin’s team. Nikulin won that fight, but we can now safely conclude that both players had a brilliant start to the season. Let’s now talk about how things play out halfway to the Alexei Cherepanov Award.

Stepan Nikulin – a forward in Lokomotiv’s most consistent unit

One of the problems for Lokomotiv in recent seasons was that the team was never able to put together at least one consistent unit. What it boiled down to, was that Polunin-Kraskovsky-Korshkov demonstrated the best chemistry from year to year. The problem is that they were assembled at Lokomotiv back in 2015 and, unfortunately, they haven't seen much progress in their game. In the 2022 offseason, Nikitin tried a variety of lineups, leaving only the combination of Georgy Ivanov and Denis Alexeyev untouched. Ivan Chekhovich, who was given a lot of chances with them, didn’t manage to consolidate his spot in the lineup. At the start of the regular season the key piece of the puzzle was still missing.

Meanwhile, Nikulin’s start of the season was a rocky one – he looked out of place in the opening game of the season in Yekaterinburg and accumulated a minus-2 differential, and then for some time he just couldn’t get back into Lokomotiv’s lineup. It was only on Sep 19, in a road game against Dynamo Moscow, that Stepan finally found his place in the roster – Nikulin had two points that night. And while his performance wasn’t key (two secondary assists), it was enough for his confidence to grow.

Since then, the forward has hardly left Lokomotiv’s third line with Ivanov and Alexeyev. It could well be called the most stable on the team in many ways. There are a few other players in Yaroslavl this season who have started to progress, but if the talk goes down to an entire offensive troika, Ivanov’s one is unbeatable in Yaroslavl.

So far, Igor Nikitin’s men have won 20 games in regulation time. Nikulin himself has only scored two game-winning goals, but he has been involved in many key realized attacks. The forward now acts so confidently that he’s steadily going out and scoring on the power play. He adds versatility to Yaroslavl’s power play, as he can play both on the left and right flank, both finishing on his own and finding accurate passes to his partners. Nikulin scored 65% of his points on the power play, which is probably even more important than his consistent time spent on the man advantage.

Yaroslav Likhachyov – the key "motor" of Khabarovsk’s attacks

If Nikulin first had to beat Likhachyov in the preseason, and then prove his worth by even playing in off-the-field games, it was different for Yaroslav. Not many people mention it these days, but during all the preseason, the Amur’s current leader played with Maxim Shalunov and Artur Kayumov, who are still key players in Lokomotiv’s power play units and have already managed to score so many goals for the team. It seemed to be a good opportunity for Likhachyov to prove himself in August, and Nikitin gave him plenty of chances, including on the special teams. Yaroslav, however, was not at all successful, at least as far as results are concerned. On Aug 25 he was assigned down to Lokomotiv’s farm team in the VHL and there were fears that he would not play in the KHL at all this season. But just a week later, Likhachyov ended up on loan to Amur, and now it can be said for sure that it was the right decision for everyone.

What makes Likhachyov unique is that, starting at the youth level, it only takes him one or two games to score his first goal in a new league, and that’s no exaggeration. That was the case in the NMHL (he scored in his second game), the QMJHL (debut game), the JHL (debut game) and now the KHL, where he opened his goal scoring account in his second game of the season against Torpedo. As it turned out, that Nizhny Novgorod celebration was the first of many this season for Yaroslav.

The first tally turned into a three-game goal-scoring streak as Likhachyov scored against Metallurg and Kunlun Red Star. The most interesting thing is that it didn’t happen while Ivan Nikolishin was on the ice. The well-known connection was organized by Vadim Yepanchintsev’s coaching staff only in early October. Since then, we’ve seen Likhachyov and Nikolishin together on the rink on a regular basis, both in even strength and powerplay stretches.

One of Likhachyov’s main tricks this season is his ability in perform high-speed transitions into the other team’s zone on the left wing with full control of the puck. This allows him to cut off opponents, creating space, for example, for Nikolishin, and give him the puck to shoot from an advantageous position. If the forwards switched roles, then Yaroslav can accept a pass of any complexity – even if the puck went to his skates or behind, he can immediately handle it and move to the crease for a goal-scoring opportunity. After a few seasons in Canada, Likhachyov also improved in puck battles, as he himself said in interviews. It’s not hard to tell, looking at his goals, including those coming from the slot.

Likhachyov compared to Nikulin is a more frequent even-strength scorer (72%) and mostly dished out assists with the man advantage. Only one goal out of nine (in a home game against Neftekhimik in late November) was scored by Yaroslav on the powerplay.

What do the numbers say?

Right now, Nikulin is the top scorer in the KHL among rookies (6+17), just behind him is Likhachyov (10+8). There’s a significant gap between the second and third most prolific scorers on this list (Dinamo Minsk’s players sit seven points behind).

It’s interesting to look at the cumulative xG for each of the two players. The Amur forward’s figure is 11, while his Lokomotiv’s colleague is only at 5.4. If looking at the actual number of goals, the picture is similar. The real goals minus expected would be a little better for Nikulin. If taking all the chances when the players are on the ice, the numbers are similar, but the number of chances created by the opponents is different - Stepan has a serious advantage (his xGA is 9.7 vs. 23 for Likhachyov). The Lokomotiv player is a bit better in one-on-one puck battles (54% vs. 47%), although he engages in them more often than Likhachyov. All of this just confirms the fact that the trio of Nikulin – Ivanov – Alexeyev is very stable, creating a lot of chances, while not letting in too many. Likhachyov is a little sharper in his attacks, as well as his whole trio, but these guys also allow more than enough to the opposition.

Who could join the battle?

Probably the main competitor for the Yaroslavl forwards at the beginning of the season was Torpedo’s forward Vasily Atanasov, but a serious injury still does not allow him to play. The closest pursuers on points among the newcomers right now are Dinamo Minsk representatives – Vitaly Pinchuk has 11 points, Vadim Moroz scored 12. They are followed by Torpedo’s blueliner Bogdan Konyushkov with ten assists and Vityaz’s Stanislav Yarovoi (6+4). Nine points went to Nikita Grebyonkin, another loaner with Amur, the same number was scored by Viktor Neuchev of Avtomobilist, Ilya Ivantsov of Severstal, and also by Yegor Vinogradov and Denis Vengryzhanovsky in Nizhny Novgorod. Ak Bars’ d-man Nikita Yevseyev is worth mentioning among those who didn’t play as often.